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Companies need to assess demographic risks

The retirement of large numbers of experienced workers throughout this decade and beyond is likely to create widespread skills shortages in many US companies, according to The Conference Board. This could cause severe business continuity problems, with companies being unable to find suitable staff for mission critical roles.

The report is based on a survey of 150 human resources officers, recent Conference Board meetings with business executives and ongoing Conference Board research. It finds that the impending retirement of 77 million baby boomers - the largest generation in American history - could ‘wreak havoc’ in the large number of firms that do not have action plans to stem this retirement Tsunami.

"The leading edge of boomers, now in their mid-50s, are beginning to retire," says Howard Muson, author of the report, "and not enough people are coming along in the much smaller Generation X, now 25 to 38 years old, to replace them. The unprecedented turnover rates in recent years among younger, mid-career employees will further shrink that pool of qualified replacements at many companies. There is a real question as to how many companies are prepared for the retirement Tsunami already underway."

The Conference Board report shows that while companies devote significant time and money to find replacements for outgoing CEOs and other top officers, they are expending far less resources to groom successors for highly-skilled professionals and making sure that invaluable knowledge is passed on to younger workers.

Among the 150 companies covered in the report, 66 percent do not keep age profiles of their workers, 63 percent do not maintain inventory banks listing the firm's available skills and 49 percent do not assess their companies' training and development needs.

Conference Board research suggests three major strategies companies can implement to head off the labour and skill scarcities:
* HR departments must do a better job of planning future HR and skill needs.
* Incentives should be devised to entice the best performers with badly needed skills to delay their retirements until younger people gain the experience to fill their shoes.
* Companies need to improve strategies for capturing valuable technical expertise and history before it walks out the door.

The retirement wave will gain momentum as the US economy recovers. It will reach a tipping point later this decade, Muson says, when boomers born between 1951 and 1959 - who constitute almost half the generation - begin to retire in large numbers. While some older workers are staying on the job because of stock market losses in IRA and 401(K) accounts, there are not enough of them to fill the emerging job gap. And, if the economy and stock market continue improving, these seasoned workers may decide to cash in their chips and retire after all.

Concludes Muson: "Persuading seasoned, still-productive workers to extend their careers seems to be the best alternative to replacing the large numbers who will be eligible (and financially able) to retire. Since workers in surveys say they'd like to keep working and earning, companies may well be able to get through the crisis with people they already have."

Source: The Brain and Experience Drain
Executive Action #65 / The Conference Board

www.conference-board.org

Date: 26th September 2003 •Region: N.America •Type: Article •Topic: BC general
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