Short-term school closures may worsen flu pandemics, University of Pittsburgh study finds

Closing schools for less than two weeks during a flu pandemic may actually increase infection rates say University of Pittsburgh researchers in a study published in the Journal of Public Health Management and Practice. The findings, developed from a series of computer simulations based on US census data, indicate that schools may need to be closed for at least eight weeks in order to significantly decrease the spread of infection.

The value of school closures has been debated as a possible strategy to stem or slow the current H1N1 influenza pandemic. Indeed, hundreds of schools across the US have been closed at different periods during 2009 for fear the virus would spread more quickly if they stayed open.

"Although closing schools may seem like a reasonable way to slow the spread of flu, we found that it was not effective unless sustained for at least eight weeks after implementation," said study lead author, Bruce Lee, M.D., M.B.A., assistant professor of medicine, epidemiology and biomedical informatics, University of Pittsburgh. Closing schools quickly at the start of an outbreak was much less important than keeping them closed continually throughout the epidemic, he added.

According to study authors, short-duration school closures can increase transmission rates by returning susceptible students back to school in the middle of an epidemic when they are most vulnerable to infection.

The study also found that identifying sick students individually and keeping them from attending school had minimal impact on an epidemic. In addition, there were no significant differences between individual school closures and system-wide closures in mitigating an epidemic.

•Date: 4th Jan 2010 • Region: US •Type: Article •Topic: Pandemic planning
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