New climate change scenarios highlight potential European impacts

At a symposium earlier this week, the UK Met Office published the results of its latest climate change research project.

Entitled ‘ENSEMBLES – A changing climate in Europe’ the research is based on a new climate mitigation scenario constructed using the same principles that will be adopted by the next IPCC assessment review using concentrations of greenhouse gases and other forcings as a starting point.

The research has enabled the prediction of the key impacts of climate change on different areas of Europe. These are as follows:


Sector	Impact area	Timescale	Region	Main impact
Insurance	Property damage by windstorms	2071–2100	UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Benelux, Spain	15% increase in storm loss potential
Insurance	Winter wind storms	Seasonal	Europe	Increase in extremes over NW Europe
Health	Heat stress	21st century	Greece	Increase in heat stress and mortality from heatwaves
Forestry	Forest fires	2025–2100	Scandinavian Peninsula, the Kola Peninsula, Karelia and Finland (collectively known as Fenno-Scandia)	Increase from 20 to 35 days per year of fire risk
Forestry	Bark beetles	21st century	Scandinavia	Increase in damage. Loss of forests
Water	Water resources for agriculture	2061–90	Poland	Decrease yield of wheat and potato
	Lake levels	21st century	Fenno-Scandia	Increase in winter, decrease in summer
	European rivers	2071–2100	Europe	Tiber and Vistula vulnerable — increase in water stress
Agriculture	Wheat yields	21st century	Mediterranean basin	2010–2040 increase, 2050–2090 decrease
	Nitrogen leaching	2010–2090	Portugal and Denmark	20–40% probability of leaching increase and 20-40% yield decline in crops as a result
	Blue tongue	Seasonal	Northern Europe	Increase with increasing temperatures
Natural environment	Palsa mires (permanently frozen peat)	21st century	Scandinavia	3 °C increase in temp and 10% increase in ppn lead to 80% loss by 2080

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•Date: 18th Nov 2009• Region: UK/Europe •Type: Article •Topic: BC general
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