UK government changes pandemic planning assumptions

Ian Dalton, National Director of NHS Flu Resilience, has written to stakeholders within the UK NHS to highlight changes in pandemic planning assumptions made by the government.

The new assumptions are contained in a Cabinet Office document which is based on further scientific evidence available on the (A)H1N1 virus.

The revised assumptions show that estimates of the worst case scenario in the current pandemic are not as bad as previously thought.

The estimated ‘clinical attack rate’ in the revised planning assumptions remains at 30 percent of the population but the both the hospitalisation rate (1 percent) and the fatality rate (0.1 percent) are both expected to be lower than previous estimates.

Mr Dalton warns against complacency, saying:

“These planning assumptions provide us with a revised worst case scenario and not predictions. Although lower than previous estimates, the revised worst case scenario will still put the NHS under great pressure if realised. The worst case scenario will still require a significant surge in capacity and present a huge challenge to [NHS] resilience plans.
“These revised assumptions contain nothing to suggest that our strategy to be as prepared as possible for a second, potentially more aggressive attack wave in the Autumn is the wrong one.”

Read the Cabinet Office planning assumptions document (PDF)

•Date: 7th Sept 2009• Region: World •Type: Article •Topic: Pandemic planning
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