| IBM unveils pandemic scenario simulation service
The World Bank has estimated that a flu pandemic could cost 2 percent of one year's global GDP, or $800 billion. The US Congressional Budget Office also estimates that a pandemic could cost 1.5 percent of US annual GDP under a moderate scenario, and 5 percent under a severe scenario. However, IBM believes that these estimates may downplay ‘network effects’ - the business impact of disruptions to supply chains, distribution networks, communications infrastructure and potentially the financial system. By modeling potential links between the dynamics of disease and business, the new IBM Pandemic Business Impact Modeler (PBIM) Service, developed by IBM Research and implemented by IBM Global Business Services consultants, is designed to help users simulate the potential impacts of a pandemic outbreak on business performance. It also is designed to aid in pandemic preparedness by allowing companies to run various simulations which in turn may help them to develop and test current and future crisis management plans. For example, a manufacturer may have a global supply chain consisting of suppliers that provide raw materials to a number of fulfillment sites, which in turn assemble and ship finished goods to customers worldwide. Or a financial services company may have a global branch and delivery network supported by data processing and service centers around the world. By using the PBIM service to simulate where a pandemic starts and how rapidly it might spread, the modeler can help these companies gain a better understanding of the potential financial impact - should a pandemic interfere with part of their supply chain. They could also model projections in advance on how various crisis management strategies might play out. "Pandemics may be one of the most challenging types of business disruptions due to their potential global reach and the possibility of long durations. With the globalization of business today, companies are becoming more dependent on resources and markets around the world, which means the potential impact of a pandemic to business performance has become increasingly relevant and complex," said Shanker Ramamurthy, Global Leader for IBM's banking and financial markets consulting practice. "The PBIM service is a strategic planning tool that can be used to experiment with pandemic scenarios - helping organizations to assess different response strategies in advance."
•Date: 14th Sept 2007• Region: US/World •Type: Article •Topic: Pandemic planning
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