Willis Research Network uses Japanese supercomputer to help predict typhoons, hurricanes and climate change
The ability to use the Earth Simulator in conjunction with the expertise of the WRN and its partners, marks a major step from global modelling towards regional and local impact and, according to Willis, ‘promises to be of profound significance to the international reinsurance and insurance industry’. Over the next three years the Willis Research Network will work with teams of researchers in Japan and the UK to help apply the Earth Simulator to the needs of the Japanese and international insurance market across a range of hazards. The ultimate aim of the research programme is to provide improved inputs into catastrophe models and realistic disaster scenarios giving underwriters much greater confidence in understanding future risks across key regions. The Earth Simulator, one of the world’s most powerful supercomputers is used to run the Hadley Centre's climate model, HadGEM, under the UK-Japan Climate Collaboration (UJCC). The University of Reading’s Walker Institute and the Met Office Hadley Centre are both involved and the whole project is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). According to Rowan Douglas, chairman of the Willis Research Network, “We are just reaching the stage where the power of this immense computer platform, coupled with improvements in simulation techniques and climate modelling allow us to model regional weather and extreme events rather than just the mean climate. This has profound implications for insurers. It opens the possibility for the insurance market to better prepare for the level of events that may arise from climate change.” Professor Julia Slingo of the Walker Institute and NERC’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science said, “Being able to use the Earth Simulator has had a huge impact on our climate research and allowed us to begin to address questions such as the likely frequency and severity of typhoons and hurricanes under climate change scenarios. We are seeing, for the first time, the importance of resolving these types of weather systems on many aspects of climate, including El Niño. There is no doubt that in the next few years the increased skill of our models, as a result of being able to work with the Earth Simulator, will lead to improved seasonal forecasts and climate change projections, both of significant value to the insurance industry.”
•Date: 14th Feb 2007 • Region: World •Type: Article •Topic: BC general
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