Cyber war threats examined

The University of New Hampshire has unveiled the UNH Cyber Threat Calculator, which assesses the level of threat any attacker poses to specific sectors in the country that rely on information technology.

The Cyber Threat Calculator was developed by researchers at UNH Justiceworks and students, and offers a new method to identify and quantify the threats posed to the United States’ cyber infrastructure.

“Nation states potentially pose the greatest threat with regard to cyber security to the United States. Clearly Russia and China are two of the top countries because they have more developed capabilities, but it may not be in their interest to use cyber attacks for strategic attacks ends. Both countries have worked on doctrine and there is some evidence that they are incorporating it into their military training as well. However, individuals, political groups, religious groups and organized crime groups also pose ongoing risks and should be considered cyber threats, as well,” says Andrew Macpherson, director of the technical analysis group at Justiceworks and research assistant professor of justice studies.

A cyber attack could have a significant impact in the United States. Targets could include the energy sector; emergency response and preparedness systems; financial services; and telecommunications; or even the agricultural sector.

“There are increased risks as computer networks become more integrated with all aspects of our lives and infrastructure,” Macpherson says. “What we won’t see is a ‘digital Pearl Harbor.’ Using cyber attacks to take some type of infrastructure, military, or civilian out of commission is, over the long run, problematic.”

Macpherson says it’s difficult to quantify the amount of damage that could be caused by or estimate the economic loss possible as a result of a cyber attack. An attacker may want to impact certain sectors quietly over a period of time or may seek to carry out widespread multiple sector attacks.

“What is known is that the threat of a cyber attack is a real and growing concern for industry and the government alike. With approximately 85 percent of the cyber infrastructure owned by the private sector, it’s not just a government problem,” Macpherson says.

To help private cyber security experts limit their exposure, UNH expects to make the calculator available to private industry security experts later this year.

“These are the people who really need this information and tool to limit their risk,” Macpherson says.

•Date: 30th January 2007 • Region: US •Type: Article •Topic: Terrorism
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