New RMS study reviews Japanese disaster risks

Risk Management Solutions, Inc. has released the findings of an in-depth study that provides key benchmarks for the potential risk of human casualties from catastrophic events in Japan. The study, ‘Catastrophe Mortality in Japan: The Impact of Catastrophes on Life and Personal Accident Insurance,’ examines scenarios that would cause over 10,000 fatalities – representing a 1 percent increase in annual mortality – in the categories of infectious disease, earthquake, tsunami, and terrorism. This is the most extensive analysis to date of potential catastrophe risk in Japan.

As part of the study, RMS looked at the scenario of an influenza virus mutation developing into a pandemic and spreading through many cities in Japan despite stringent response measures implemented by the government. The pandemic scenario in Japan results in an estimated 24 million people requiring medical treatment and 500,000 deaths.

Earthquakes are also a major cause for concern in Japan, where they have been responsible for over 160,000 fatalities since 1900. High casualty levels in Japanese earthquakes have usually occurred in older residential homes, but today’s risk includes the collapse of high-occupancy buildings. Modern office buildings and major apartment complexes contain thousands of people at a time. These tend to be built to more stringent design codes, and are less likely to collapse. However, as they increase in number, the chances of even a small number of these high-occupancy structures failing would mean a large loss of life. A severe earthquake can reveal construction faults or design errors that would otherwise be hidden – one of the major surprises in the 1995 Kobe Earthquake was the failure of modern buildings that had been designed to an earthquake code.

RMS looked at two earthquake scenarios for the study: a magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurring at night in downtown Osaka and a magnitude 8.0 earthquake hitting the Tokyo region during the day. Results showed that the Osaka event would cause 10,000 fatalities and 96,000 injuries, while the Tokyo quake would cause 17,000 fatalities from shake, 8,000 fatalities from fire, and over 170,000 injuries.

In addition to flu and earthquake, the study also examines scenarios of high mortality arising from a major tsunami and an extremist terrorism attack.

•Date: 31st Jan 2006• Region: Asia Pacific • Type: Article •Topic: BC general
Rate this article or make a comment - click here