Tropical Storm Risk consortium offers 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season forecast

The forecasting consortium Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has predicted that there is a 79 percent possibility of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2006, with just a 6 percent chance of a below normal season.

TSR also says that there is an 81 percent chance that US landfalls in 2006 will be in the top one-third of years historically. 16 tropical storms are predicted for the Atlantic basin, with eight being hurricanes, four of which will be intense hurricanes. Five tropical storm systems will make landfall, two of which will be hurricanes.

The two main climate factors influencing TSR’s forecast are the expected values in August and September for the speed of trade winds which blow westwards across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and the temperature of the sea waters between west Africa and the Caribbean, where many hurricanes develop. The former influences cyclonic vorticity while the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms. TSR anticipates weaker than normal trades and warmer than normal waters in 2006 – conditions which favor hurricane development.

•Date: 8th Dec 2005 • Region: US • Type: Article •Topic: Emergency planning
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