PIRA decommissioning changes but does not reduce the terror threat

Yesterday’s historic announcement that the Provisional IRA has completed its weapons decommissioning may, ironically, lead to a strengthening in dissident Irish republican groups.

Yesterday was a red-letter day in Ireland’s troubled history, with the announcement by General John de Chastelain and others who have been overseeing the PIRA weapons decommissioning, that the process was now complete and that as far as was possible all PIRA weapons have been ‘put beyond use’.

For UK-based business continuity managers it is now tempting to breathe a sigh of relief that one ongoing threat to business continuity has been removed. However, sadly, this would be an inappropriate lowering of the guard. Not because there is a likelihood of the PIRA returning to terrorism, but because there is the strong possibility that hard-liners will leave the organisation and join other dissident groups which have not signed up to the peace process.

MI5 has not changed its threat assessment advice as a result of the decommissioning and offers the stark warning that: “Dissident Irish republican terrorist groups present a serious threat to British interests. These groups reject the Belfast Agreement (the "Good Friday" Agreement), continue to engage in acts of terrorism in Northern Ireland, and aspire to attack targets in Great Britain.”

The source of the Irish republican terrorist threat may have changed but it has not gone away. In fact, the threat level may even be increased, with dissident groups perhaps feeling the necessity to take some form of action as a symbol of their existence and intent.

•Date: 27th September 2005 • Region: UK • Type: Article •Topic: Terrorism
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