Avian Flu a ‘very ominous’ threat In an address to the AAAS Annual Meeting in Washington , D.C. , Dr. Julie Louise Gerberding noted that in its current form the virus poses a relatively limited problem for humans. But, she said, the current situation ‘probably’ resembles the period before the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak when the virus was quietly mutating into a strain that would eventually leave 50 million people dead. "Most people who are looking at this recognise it is a very ominous situation for the globe in terms of statistical probability" of a larger outbreak among humans, Gerberding said. Gerberding's comments came just a day after Dr. Nancy Cox, the CDC's chief influenza scientist, suggested to an American Association for the Advancement of Science audience that further mutation in the avian flu in Asia could precipitate the worst pandemic in human history. Researchers believe that prolonged contact with infected birds or consumption of raw, infected, chicken meat is required for the virus to jump to humans. But once it does make the jump, it appears to be lethal: according to a report in the Financial Times, the current outbreak has infected 55 humans in Asia and killed 42, a mortality rate of 76 percent. The fear is that the virus would mutate in such a way that it becomes easier to pass from human to human, without losing any of its lethal force. An Oxford research team recently reported that the virus is adapting to attack mammals. Today's H5 strain, Gerberding said, "has already evolved from the H5 of a few years ago." "The concern in Asia," she explained, "is that we have this highly pathogenic strain of influenza, circulating widely, and there are really wonderful opportunities for this virus to either reassert (its genes) with human strains of influenza, or with other avian species, and evolve into a strain is that has whatever that secret ingredient is that allows it to be effectively transmitted from person to person." A recent study published in the New England Journal of Medicine reported that the disease had spread to two Vietnamese children without showing the usual respiratory symptoms. Both of them died. It's also possible that the mortality rate is lower because some cases of avian flu in humans are not being reported or even recognized because they do not lead to death. In terms of current contingency planning, Gerberding said that one aspect of the response plan is modelled on disrupting "small world networks"-by limiting the movements of people who might be carrying the virus, for example, or possibly even ordering quarantines. The effort requires increasingly refined communications efforts so that people are informed and persuaded to alter their behaviour without causing unnecessary disruptions or panic. International cooperation also is crucial, and Gerberding cited the efforts of Thailand and Vietnam as helpful in the current campaign. "A problem in a remote corner of the world becomes a world problem overnight," she said. "A world problem quickly becomes a local problem, in every corner of the world." For an explanation of why pandemics are a business continuity issue and a review of some of the business continuity measures that can be taken see: Communicable diseases: business continuity issues
•Date:
22nd February 2005 • Region: US/World •Type:
Article •Topic:
BC general |
