Climate change cards put on the table

A summit of scientists from around the world is meeting this week at the ‘Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change’ conference at the UK Met Office's headquarters in Exeter .

The conference is exploring the global risks presented by different levels of global warming and has highlighted that:

• Climate change is a real threat which cannot be ignored
• Climate change presents both a direct threat and an indirect threat – its impacts will cascade between systems vertically and horizontally.
• Climate change can be mitigated, but only by a concerted worldwide effort by governments, businesses and individuals.

In terms of business continuity, climate change offers the immediate threat of increasingly severe weather-related disasters as well as the longer term threat of rising sea levels. Less direct threats are also likely to impact businesses through cascading chains - this can be a vertical cascade (for example low rainfall leads to low water levels which leads to reduced hydroelectric power production which leads to rolling blackouts which creates a business continuity threat) or can be horizontal (reduced water supply leads to less food production which leads to poor health which leads to an unproductive workforce which leads to lack of profitability which leads to business failure).

Bill Hare, visiting scientist, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research outlined the global risks for species, ecosystems, agriculture, water and socio-economic conditions. He claimed that below a 1 degree C temperature increase, the level of risk is low, but not insignificant, particularly for highly vulnerable ecosystems. In the 1-2 degree C increase range, risks across the board increase significantly, and are often substantial at a regional level. However, once the rise reaches 2 degree C and above, the risks increase very substantially, involving potentially large extinctions or even ecosystem collapses, major increases in hunger and water shortage risks, as well as socio-economic damages. This is of particular concern in developing countries, with Africa consistently amongst the regions with high to very high projected damages.

Details of the speakers and papers being presented can be found at the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Conference website http://www.stabilisation2005.com

•Date: 3rd February 2005 • Region: World •Type: Article •Topic: BC general
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