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Below average Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast

Colorado State University’ Department of Atmospheric Science has issued its forecast for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast and is predicting slightly below average hurricane activity.

According to the forecast, the current neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is likely to transition to either weak or moderate El Niño conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past month and the far North Atlantic is relatively cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. These factors point to a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

Colorado State University says that the probabilities of a least one major hurricane making landfall are as follows:

  • Entire US coastline: 42 percent (average for last century is 52 percent);
  • US East Coast Including Peninsula Florida: 24 percent (average for last century is
    31 percent);
  • Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville: 24 percent (average
    for last century is 30 percent).

The probability of a least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is 34 percent (average for last century is 42 percent).

Read the full forecast (PDF).



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