Ten assumption-busting guiding principles for business pandemic planning
Scenario-based business continuity planning must rely on and build sets of assumptions, most often based on our collective experience of geographically specific disasters. But when preparing for continuity of business through an influenza pandemic, we may overlook key differences between a pandemic and any other disruptive event – natural or man-made – for which businesses prepare: Pandemics are: Because they are widely and simultaneously disruptive, we cannot move our operations out of harm’s way and we cannot expect help to arrive from somewhere else. Because they are prolonged (likely a series of waves over 12-18 months), economic interdependencies will begin to fail and continue to fail at an increasing pace (assuming the current low levels of preparedness) as the infrastructure linkages fail. Once lost, rebuilding economic momentum will be difficult, resource-intensive, and expensive. Because of these qualitative differences, care must be taken that your pandemic assumptions do not minimize or ignore secondary agent effects such as political instability, security weaknesses, minimal to no surge capacity in many industries supplying essential goods and services, drastic and lasting shifts in consumer demand, psychological effects of pandemic, persistent medical conditions in pandemic infection survivors, completely overwhelmed medical resources and systems, a bottlenecked or restricted transportation network, collapse or destruction of some businesses or industries, and sustained loss of economic momentum. Acceptance or ignorance of stated and unstated assumptions will ultimately determine the utility of the planning process and the plans that result. Guiding principles as presented here can keep it real, keep it useful and provide both a structure and scope for business pandemic planning. Offered below are ten ‘assumption-busting’ guiding principles for pandemic planning: 10 Guiding Principles for Pandemic Planning (Do’s and Don’ts) 1. A pandemic will affect everyone: suppliers, customers, partners, governments, emergency services, medical services, utilities, etc. * Don’t assume the disaster ends at your front door. 2. Predicting effects and outcomes based on past pandemics will likely lead to erroneous conclusions. * Do take into account the vastly different base conditions of our global economy, just-in-time inventories, rapid and voluminous transport of people, materials and goods, and the increased urban population (as a percentage of a country’s population, and in terms of increased population density). We are all far more interdependent than we have been at any time in the past. It is not known how a pandemic would play out in these conditions. * Do assess your company’s independence and resilience; talk to your supply chain; assess the potential for rapid changes in customer demand. 3. Knowledge is your weapon against fear and confusion. * Do inform and train your employees to greater resilience and independence: Share expectations, support home and family preparations, offer first-aid courses and preparation supplies at bulk cost. * Do lead and invest in your personnel and they will look to you for leadership and guidance during a pandemic. 4. Consider pandemic effects on the normal legal and contractual processes. * Don’t assume that contracts and agreements will hold during a pandemic period. People and organizations will do their best, but much will depend on the severity of the pandemic; the degree to which businesses and governments have prepared; the size and complexity of your supply chain and customer base; and many other external factors. * Do engage your suppliers, government agencies, partners, and vendors on the pandemic issue to see who is preparing, how they are preparing, what contingencies they are preparing for, and what you can expect in service changes or degradation. 5. If a given wave of pandemic turns out to have a high mortality rate, fear will govern people’s decisions and actions in business and in their personal lives. Civic order and security could become constraining issues. Your arsenal against fear is information, communication, and responsible action. * Do plan for the element of fear. 6. Know that separate waves of a pandemic may have very different characteristics in terms of severity and mortality. The first wave of the 1918 pandemic was quite mild, while the second wave proved deadly and devastating. There is no way to predict any patterns. Many people and companies could ‘let their guard down’ should the first wave prove weak. Conversely, if the first wave is severe, it may be difficult to prepare for the second wave between waves – supplies, drugs and services may be disrupted or scarce. * Don’t limit your physical or planning preparations to only the first wave, expecting to be able to prepare for the next wave afterwards. 7. Medical facilities the world over have little to no surge capacity. Effective vaccines might not be available for many months – perhaps not until the second wave is subsiding. Antivirals, limited in quantity, will have unknown efficacy and may quickly prove ineffective as the virus adapts and builds resistance. * Don’t assume that modern medicine will prevent mortality. 8. Your plans should reflect a series of escalating responses in concert with escalating pandemic conditions. * Don’t base your policies and planning on single-level, pandemic vs. non-pandemic conditions. 9. Consider strategic planning for a pandemic period. * If you supply goods or services that are or will be critical during a pandemic, do seek to bolster your ability to continue to supply those goods or services. 10. Remember that a pandemic does have a limited time. It will pass. * Do engage now in post-wave and post-pandemic planning. The most prepared and resilient companies will find new competitive advantages over the less prepared, during a pandemic and after. Dan Dorman, Continuity, DHL - Americas IS
•Date: 5th Jan 2007• Region: US/World •Type: Article •Topic: Pandemic planning |
