|
 Dirty
bombs have been in the headlines over the past few months, but what
are the real risks? How concerned should companies be? And what
measures can be taken to protect staff should the unthinkable happen?
David Honour reports.
November 1996. Moscow. A television
reporter receives a tip off that a radioactive weapon had been hidden
in Izmailovo Park, eastern Moscow. Following an extensive search,
a container containing Caesium-137 strapped to sticks of dynamite
is discovered.
The Izmailovo Park incident was the first,
and so far only, attempt by terrorists to use a dirty bomb. But,
over recent months, speculation has grown that an attack on a Western
city using the dirty bomb method is a highly probable threat. Certainly,
insurance companies are taking the risk seriously, with many changing
the wording of policy clauses to ensure that insurers are not liable
for the financial costs of such an attack.
The risk
A dirty bomb, or more formally a Radiological
Dispersal Device, is a device which combines conventional explosives
with radiologically active materials. The detonation of the device
would result in the dispersal of radioactive material over a wide
area, depending on the amount of materials, the strength of the
explosives used, and the prevailing weather conditions.
Suitable radiological materials are widely
available for industrial and medical use, and sufficient materials
for a dirty bomb could be obtained relatively easily by terrorists
through theft and fraud.
The highest risk materials are Gamma ray emitting
chemicals, the most common of which in industrial use are Ceasium-137,
Cobalt-60, Iridium-192 and Strontium-90:
* Caesium-137 is used for food irradiation
as well as in a wide variety of industrial instruments and in hospitals
for diagnosis and treatment and the sterilisation of medical equipment.
* Cobalt-60 is a widely-used medical and industrial
radiation source. In medicine it is mainly used in cancer radiotherapy
and industrially it is utilised in the non-destructive testing of
welds and castings; in a large variety of measurement and test instruments;
and for food irradiation.
* Iridium-192 is again used in non-destructive
testing, especially in the oil and airline industries. It is also
used in cancer therapy.
* Strontium-90 is used as a tracer in medical
and agricultural studies. It is also used as a power source in specialist
long-life, light-weight power supplies; in electron tubes; and for
the treatment of eye diseases and bone cancer.
How great is the risk?
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the world's central
inter-governmental forum for scientific and technical co-operation
in the nuclear field, put the issue into context in a public statement
made on the subject last year. The IAEA pointed out that the radioactive
materials needed to build a dirty bomb can be found in almost any
country in the world, and more than 100 countries lack the control
and monitoring programmes necessary to prevent or even detect the
theft of these materials. The agency also stated that:
* ‘Orphaned’ radioactive sources - a term used by the
IAEA to denote radioactive sources that are outside official regulatory
control - are a widespread phenomenon in the newly independent states
of the former USSR.
* US companies have lost track of nearly 1,500 radioactive sources
within the country since 1996, with more than half never recovered.
* A European Union (EU) study estimated that every year up to about
70 sources are lost from regulatory control in the EU. A recent
European Commission report estimated that about 30,000 disused sources
in the EU that are held in local storage at the users' premises
are at risk of being lost from regulatory control.
Since the above IAEA comments were made, the
agency has been working with many governments to try and increase
the security of potential dirty bomb materials, but it is still
the case that determined and reasonably financed terrorists could
obtain appropriate radiological materials relatively easily.
The impact
It is unlikely that the amount of radiological material in a dirty
bomb would be sufficient to cause large numbers of fatalities or
long-term health problems. However, the main impact would be that
of any weapon of terror: creating fear, panic and over-reaction
by the public and the media.
For businesses the impact of a dirty bomb are
likely to include:
* Inability to access premises, possibly
on a long term basis
In the event of a dirty bomb the initial reaction of public authorities
is likely to be the ordering of a widespread evacuation of the surrounding
area. The initial exclusion zone is likely to cover a wide area
and the zone will be maintained until the authorities can ascertain
that it is safe to allow people to return. This is likely to take
days rather than hours, meaning that businesses may be unable to
gain access to premises for a long period of time. Businesses close
to ‘ground zero’ may find that premises are rendered
unoccupiable for many months due to radiological contamination and
subsequent clean-up operations.
* Difficulties in conducting crisis management
activities
Evacuation will be fast and panic-stricken workers are unlikely
to take business continuity measures into account until their own
personal safety has been assured. Crisis teams are likely to be
scattered and may find that due to telecoms difficulties (the mobile
network is likely to be swamped) and transport problems (public
transport will be disrupted and the roads grid-locked with stationary
traffic or abandoned cars) it is very difficult to gather in one
location to conduct crisis management and business continuity measures.
Just as in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 confusion will reign
and recovery time objectives will be delayed, severely in some cases.
* Ongoing disruption due to subsequent
bomb threats, false alarms and ‘copy-cat’ actions.
Terrorists could ‘milk’ a dirty bomb attack for many
months afterwards, using telephone warnings to increase fear and
cause evacuations and disruption. Copy-cats and false alarms from
members of the public are likely to add to these problems.
* Post traumatic stress in staff
Staff involved in any incident, or those who may have lost colleagues,
friends or family, are likely to display signs of post-traumatic
stress. This can have severe impacts on individual and team performance.
* Loss of general market confidence, resulting
in reduced share price and reduced sales
Any dirty bomb attack on a major city is likely to have an economic
impact on a par with 9/11. Share prices are likely to plummet and
the subsequent erosion of market confidence is likely to have a
long-term impact on the health of many businesses.
Mitigation
Much of the responsibility for mitigation of the dirty bomb threat
is in the hands of national governments and the airport and ports
authorities, as well as the producers and retailers of the radiological
materials. Materials must be secured and monitored throughout their
whole lifecycles. Points of entry to countries must be alert to
the threat and must have adequate detection and security measures
in place.
Businesses can help themselves by including
dirty bombs in their business continuity planning scenarios, taking
account of the potential impacts outlined above.
Businesses can also take specific measures
to educate and prepare staff for a dirty bomb situation, helping
to reduce some of the initial panic and also giving staff a better
chance of surviving an incident. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission
offers the following advice to people caught up in a dirty bomb
attack:
* Move away from the immediate area - at least
several blocks from the explosion - and go inside. This will reduce
exposure to any radioactive airborne dust.
* Turn on local radio or TV channels for advisories from emergency
response and health authorities.
* If facilities are available, remove clothes and place them in
a sealed plastic bag. Saving contaminated clothing will allow testing
for radiation exposure.
* Take a shower to wash off dust and dirt. This will reduce total
radiation exposure, if the explosive device contained radioactive
material.
* If radioactive material was released, local news broadcasts will
advise people where to report for radiation monitoring and blood
and other tests to determine whether they were in fact exposed and
what steps to take to protect their health.
Conclusion
In matters of terrorism familiarity breeds not contempt, but complacency.
But businesses cannot afford to allow themselves to slip into such
an attitude. Dirty bombs are not a particularly effective weapon,
per se, but the relative ease of obtaining appropriate materials
and the disproportionate impact upon the life of a city that such
an attack would cause, makes the dirty bomb a real threat to Western
businesses.
David Honour is editor of Continuity Central.
This article was first published in Enterprise Risk magazine. www.er-magazine.com/
•Date:
21st November 2003 •Region: Worldwide •Type:
Article •Topic: Terrorism
Rate this article or
make a comment - click
here
|
