Strategic pandemic planning for business: one size does not fit all The current bird ‘flu virus, designated H5N1, has been of considerable and growing concern for its potential to mutate into a form easily transmissible between humans, triggering a new pandemic which would move rapidly to cover the globe. Human influenza pandemics have occurred roughly every 30-40 years, some relatively mild, some moderate and some, like the 1918-19 ‘Spanish Flu,’ quite severe as measured in terms of morbidity and mortality. The current bird flu virus, H5N1, is of specific concern because of its virulence in the bird populations, its lethality in those humans who have caught it from direct contact with diseased birds, and its genetic and clinical similarities to the H1N1 virus responsible for the severe pandemic of 1918-19. We do not know if H5N1 will ever mutate to a human transmissible form, or if the next influenza pandemic will come from yet anther influenza virus, but some form of pandemic influenza is in our future, and if it is to be H5N1, there are signs that the pandemic could have serious and enduring effects on our families, our communities, our businesses and our economies. In response, governments around the world have been developing national preparedness plans and have begun calling for business contingency plans from the private sector as well. For businesses, preparation and planning for an influenza pandemic is a special-case exercise of business continuity. But be aware, one size does not fit all. Before developing detailed plans of hygiene protocols, employee training, and supply stockpiling, there are some more fundamental questions that need to be asked. This internal assessment must be accomplished with an understanding of the potential risks of an influenza pandemic and the unique factors that make it a special case of business continuity. Here’s a quick summary: * An influenza pandemic will occur but we don’t know when, and we don’t know how severe it will be in terms of both morbidity and mortality or how this will vary across time and geography. Prudent planning and preparation will consider scenarios from mild to worst-case. * Being a pandemic, it will be ubiquitous and diffuse; little help will be available from ‘elsewhere.’ * Even in a mild pandemic, the medical infrastructure and many other societal and economic infrastructures will be stretched to the limits, some will break. * Physical infrastructure and assets will be largely intact. It is people, societies, economies and political systems that will be affected directly and indirectly during a pandemic and perhaps for much longer. * A pandemic event occurs over several (3-24) months. This extended event duration has many implications for planning. * The primary direct effect of a pandemic will be high levels of absenteeism for prolonged periods of time. There are layers to this that may compound over time. First layer, are those who fall ill or die. Second layer are those who stay home to care for those who are ill. Third layer are those who must stay home to care for young children who are either voluntarily or by school closure isolated at home. Forth are those who stay home because of a directive to shelter in place, or a choice to isolate for fear of exposure to the virus, or stay home because of known exposure and pursuant quarantine. In the mildest presentation of pandemic influenza, most businesses will be able to weather out the short-term absenteeism impacts and quickly resume business as usual. But a moderate to severe presentation will create a large number of expected and unexpected consequences that will affect the global economy and all businesses for many years beyond the actual event duration. To plan for bad- and worst-case scenarios, some initial decisions must be made about the business and its responsibilities to shareholders, employees, customers, the local community and society at large. From a pandemic preparation perspective, there are three primary types of businesses with corresponding high-level continuity strategies: Of course, industries and individual businesses lie somewhere on a spectrum of societal criticality but for pandemic preparation, you will need to consider this in developing an appropriate strategy. For the clearly critical (life supporting) businesses and industries, plans must prepare to maintain functionality of all critical services through re-direction of all non-critical resources, help and guidance from government agencies and strengthening of redundancy and resiliency in operations and equipment and staff. Perhaps staff for a critical systems operations function need to be isolated 24x7 during the local waves of epidemic (including providing for their immediate families). Perhaps some customer service functions need to be suspended or turned over to automated systems only for the duration. Economic drivers during a pandemic have the potential to change radically. Essential products and services will remain in high demand, products and services deemed non-essential will quickly drop out of demand. Supply chains will be overwhelmed with sorting out essential from non-essential, inventories will need radical restructuring. Demand for warehousing low demand products will rise rapidly. Our current global economy has been structured for ‘just-in-time’ inventory and rapid and unencumbered transportation. Pandemic factors of high absenteeism, voluntary and mandatory isolation and quarantine, border restrictions, travel restrictions, and clogged transportation hubs, will all contribute to severely disrupted supply chains. In worst-case scenarios, medical services shortages, food shortages, a violent clinical presentation of the illness with high mortality rates, and general signs of civic breakdown will fuel fears and irrational behaviors. Security needs will rise for both property and assets. Industries and businesses that directly support critical businesses and industries need to start planning now. They will need to assess which of the business services and products fall into the critical category and plan to realign resources to support those functions. Working closely with their customers, suppliers and local and national government agencies can help clarify the role these businesses will need to play and will provide ideas and resources to help with the planning and preparations. The picture of pandemic preparation looks considerably different for large economic sectors involved with the provision and support of non-essential services. Some businesses may be able to quickly adapt to the altered demands. Restaurants may be able to shutdown in-house dining but redefine themselves as a catering agency for first responder staff. Opportunities for such redirection will be limited. Early planning and contractual arrangements well in advance are keys to making this a successful strategy, allowing the company to survive and reopen post-pandemic to normal operations. Other businesses that are clearly non-essential or rely on group activity may think proactively and find alternate uses for their assets and prepare now to make the shift when conditions call for it. Movie theatres, for example, may fall completely out of favor during a pandemic due to the increased risk of exposure to virus they present. But during a pandemic, there will be increased demand for warehouse space, overflow hospital bed space, even overflow morgue space. Again, those business owners and managers with the foresight to begin discussions now may be able to secure alternate opportunities to not only survive the pandemic, but also help the community and reduce longer term economic impacts. Clearly there are opportunities to be realized in the process of pandemic planning. Perhaps the best opportunity of all is to step forward to be a local leader in your community or industry, help your customers, suppliers and local communities to prepare physically, economically and perhaps most importantly, psychologically to get through such times through cooperation and mutual support. Approached this way, pandemic preparation can yield positive impacts even if the next pandemic is years away or presents only a mild global impact.
•Date: 13th April 2006 • Region: US/World • Type: Article •Topic: Pandemic planning |
