Emerging threats: climate change By David Honour The global climate is warming. Whatever the cause, there seems very little scientific doubt about this fact. The following chart from the United Nations Environment Programme / GRID-Arendal graphically displays the advancing nature of global warming. [Click here to see larger version] Global warming will have various impacts, many of which may have business continuity implications. These include:
With regards to sea level rises, two recent research studies led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Arizona indicate that ice sheets across both the Arctic and Antarctic could melt more quickly than previously expected. The two studies show that greenhouse gas increases over the next century could warm the Arctic by 3-5°C in summertime. This is roughly as warm as it was 130,000 years ago, between the most recent ice age and the previous one. Output from the NCAR-based Community Climate System Model (CCSM), a powerful tool for simulating past, present, and future climates was used in the studies. This suggested that during the interglacial period, meltwater from Greenland and other Arctic sources raised sea level by as much as 3.5 meters. However, coral records indicate that the sea level actually rose by 4 to 6 meters or more. The difference is thought to be additional water released by Antarctic ice melting. A future rise in sea level of such proportions would have major implications for all coastal locations and for low lying areas of land. The impacts would be serious and widespread, especially given the propensity in many areas of the world for large cities to be located in close proximity to the sea (due to the fact that many cities grew up around important sea ports). Business continuity managers are used to assessing risks and looking at various scenarios. Climate change is no different. It is a longer term issue than business continuity managers tend to deal with but, non-the-less, it is something that cannot be ignored. How much of a specific threat it is to your business will depend on various factors, including: Location Industry sector Working capital Energy supplies Water usage Marsh is one consultancy that seems to be taking a lead in exploring climate change threats and vulnerabilities. In a recent climate change briefing Marsh recommends asking the following questions: * How prepared is my organisation for climate change and associated potentially severe weather impacts on our operations? * How prepared is my organisation to handle a changing regulatory environment? * Do our written procedures need to be updated to reflect the potential impacts of climate change on business operations? * Do my organisation's policies adequately address such areas as loss of production, inability to supply customers, employee assistance, and communications? * Are critical suppliers and vendors prepared to ensure us their continued support? Have alternative suppliers been developed? * Has the organisation's insurance coverage been reviewed recently and does it provide appropriately for the potential impacts of climate change? Are there new products that my organisation should be considering? Other articles in our ‘emerging threats’ series: Readers' comments Mitigating against the threats of climate change is rather like having a lung transplant after a life of smoking; it may buy a few years but does not solve the problem. The overwhelming balance of scientific opinion, amongst genuine climate scientists, is that climate change is at least partially human induced. Business has an enormous part to play in this; in fact in the UK , including corporate transport, businesses directly account for 40 percent of all carbon emissions. Added to this are the indirect effects caused by inefficient and profligate consumer goods, along with the continued promotion of high emission vehicles, and the enormous investments made by business pension funds in the equities of highly polluting organisations. All of this describes a system that needs to look closely at why the problem exists before it considers how to deal with it for its own protection. The solutions are all out there, and businesses ignore them at their own, and the rest of the world's, peril. Keith Farnish
The bottom line with all enterprises and indeed countries is frailties - the financial approach of 'asset sweating' has created a global frail society. When I was a kid and lived in the countryside down in the Cotswolds the wise-owls maximised their returns but were always cognate of a responsible approach - i.e. crop rotation - allowing fields to rest and recover - allowing animals to breed in comfort and to not 'kill the lot' for profit - so inherently there was resilience. And let’s not forget the climate has been changing since my a--e was as big as a shirt button! - and it will continue so to do - for sure we are contributing - but that's about avarice and greed and the 'tree-huggers and basketweavers' leaping to the/a cause. So, as I see it, no change and every change, but our role as BCM professionals is all about appropriate preparedness with both feet 'firmly on the ground' - what we need is informed information not media hype and 'never mind the facts - lets create a story and scare them all'!! This should be a role of global lead bodies, for example The United Nations, to provide the 'feet on the floor' realities so we can ensure true preparedness and not rush into violent over-activity that leaves the Y2k like 'taste-in-the mouth' and fodder for the cynics/financial focused to use that well dis-regarded statement - 'What a waste of time and money-it'll never happen to us.' So our roles must be to continue to 'Prepare and not Scare' our enterprises and to be the voice of calm in an increasingly reactive environment - just like the wise-owls down in the Cotswolds. Mike Mikkelsen FBCI
•Date: 13th April 2006 • Region: World • Type: Article •Topic: BC general |
