Emerging threats 2006: drought
The problem of drought has always been with us; but there seems to be an unusual number of drought warnings being issued for 2006. The most recent include: KENYA UNITED STATES AUSTRALIA With generally below average rainfall across eastern Australia in December, there was a persistence, or in some cases a modest expansion, of areas experiencing rainfall deficiencies. For the 10-month period from March to December, serious rainfall deficiencies, with patches of severe deficiencies, affect much of southern Victoria between the SA border and southwest Gippsland. December rainfall was below the long-term mean in southwest Victoria resulting in a slight intensification of the deficits in comparison with the situation at the end of November. However, above average falls to the southeast of Melbourne resulted in a slight decrease in the coverage of rainfall deficits. This most recent period of deficient rainfall in southern Victoria is included within a period of below average to record low 9-year rainfall totals in the same area. For the 12-month period from January to December, the most significant rainfall deficiencies are located between Bourke (NSW) and Charleville (Qld)), and over the southern and central parts of Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland. Both these areas increased in intensity and spatial extent after December rainfall was less than half of the long-term average. There are several other relatively small patches scattered about the country, which experienced rainfall deficiencies in the 2005 calendar year. Rainfall deficiency maps for longer periods indicate that deficiencies at the three year timescale, which are particularly relevant to water supplies, remain prevalent in parts of eastern Australia, especially in Queensland. UNITED KINGDOM From a business continuity point of view drought can have many impacts, including: 1) The most obvious impact is upon businesses which rely upon industrial quantity water supplies for their day-to-day activities – agricultural and manufacturing companies for example. Such businesses are often seriously impacted by drought conditions in their regions. 2) Power shortages: in areas such as Kenya where hydroelectricity is an importance source of power generation, drought can result in power shortages and power rationing. 3) Increased risk of fire damage: perhaps the most wide-ranging impact of drought is the huge fire-risk increase it engenders. This not only creates a direct physical threat to businesses, but also to critical infrastructures upon which businesses depend. 4) Evacuations: whether linked to shortages of drinking, cooking and sanitation water, or to the increased fire risk, drought can lead to the requirement to evacuate away from affected areas, for potentially long periods of time. This can have a direct impact on businesses, with business premises becoming inaccessible; employees unable to travel to work; or employees having to take extended periods of absence to care for their own families and properties. Whereas flooding may take the weather headlines in 2006 because of its sudden and dramatic impacts; it may be drought which emerges as the most serious worldwide climate-related economic threat, as well as a direct business continuity issue which BCMs in risk areas should be factoring in to their plans. SUBMIT AN ARTICLE ON ANOTHER EMERGING THREAT Reader comments: In the last couple of years (2004/2005) droughts hit home with us here in Portugal. 2005 saw one of the driest years in our history. The first immediate consequence was the lack of water for the agricultural sector. Then, small villages started to be hit with water shortages. During the summer peak, rolling cuts in water supply were implemented across the country, particularly in the Algarve, where tourism lives on water, for the pools and the golf courses. Then came the forest fires. We used to have a forest fire period from July to September. In 2005, that period was extended to the whole year. But the long term effects are still to come. Shortage of rain means increased water supply costs. Hot and dry summers mean higher power consumption and a risk to distribution grids (as witnessed in Spain in the last summer). Consequences to agriculture also means increased food supply costs. Finally, dried land can't handle huge rains, so ironically the flooding risk also increases. The weather is not going to get any better. Only worse. Miguel Albano
•Date: 6th Jan 2006 • Region: Various • Type: Article •Topic: BC general |
